I’ve been silent on the blogging front for a while, but it only seems right that I put in my prediction for tonight’s Gaven by-election before any results come in. The National Party should win by a narrow margin, but with a fairly modest swing which will indicate that the next election is still winnable for Peter Beattie.
This will be a good result for Beattie as he needs more people to think that he could lose the next election to ensure that between now and then electors start thinking about what sort of government the Coalition would be. At the moment Beattie’s unpopularity is not being tempered by the question of alternatives.
Neither side has campaigned particularly brilliantly. Beattie has been tactically smarter appearing infrequently in the electorate in favour of spending time in cyclone affected Innisfail. But the ALP slogan is a bit of a doozy for an administration which has been in power for the best part of 17 years – “A fresh start”. Their advertisements also have been insulting – the sort of ads that helped them to lose in 1995. There’s acceptable negative advertising, but lampooning your opponents as hayseeds is outside those parameters.
Springborg hasn’t been able to help himself, and I am told has run a very presidential campaign. Given that the polling apparently says he doesn’t resonate very well in the electorate this was not a smart thing to do. I understand that the Liberals were not happy, but despite Liberal State Director Jeff Greene being the titular head of the campaign, the Nats were off doing their own thing. Expect the same “I am” campaign at the next State election with the National Party ignoring the polling, and their partners, in favour of their own gut instinct. If the Libs can’t keep them in line in a by-election, where variables and personnel are relatively limited, they have no chance in a general election.
Now I’ll go off to dinner and check on the results later. See if I put my money on the right square.
P.S. Don’t forget you can check out the candidates and the seat on our website at http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/gaven-by-election-2006/