May 17, 2006 | Graham

Howard and Gillard preferred leaders.



Septuagenarian Rupert Murdoch graciously shared some advice for sextuagenarian John Howard with the world – go while you’re on top of your game. Advice that Rupert is sure to heed himself. No-one is inexpendable after all!
In fact, as our latest “What the people want” polling shows, according to public opinion John Howard is the best leader the Liberals could have from those available. The polling also has advice for those promoting Bill Shorten – don’t waste your time, at least not at the moment, Julia Gillard is the star. Paul Keating and Peter Costello also take some hits.
At the same time as we polled Australians on the 2006 federal budget we also asked them which potential and possible leaders they preferred for the Liberal and Labor Parties. We had a left-leaning sample, so Howard didn’t fare too well across the sample, but with 72% of Liberal voters supporting him, he’s fulfilling one half of his leadership mantra – his party still wants him! The only surprise in the Liberal leadership stakes is how well Malcolm Turnbull is doing – better than Peter Costello.
We also put Tony Abbott and Alexander Downer in the questionnaire, but they failed to score above the background radiation. In fact, 0% of Liberal voters supported Downer.
In the Labor leadership poll things were sad for Kim Beazley. The stand-out choice for Labor leader was Julia Gillard – 35% across the sample and 38% amongst Labor voters. Next came Kevin Rudd, Paul Keating, “none of the above”, and only then, Kim Beazley on 10%. A more sophisticated look at these figures shows things a little worse for Kevin Rudd than at first glance – Labor voters prefer Paul Keating to him by 5 percentage votes. And also better, It’s his Tory supporters who put him second, and in fact they prefer him to Gillard. Rudd might be the best bet if you are trying to win new voters rather than consolidate old ones.
So, while Howard sails along, unassailed, things are woeful on the Labor side. Popular choice Gillard doesn’t have the factional muscle to be seriously in the running, while out of the next two most viable candidate, one of them Paul Keating, isn’t even in the Parliament, and retains the active disdain of roughly half the electorate. Added to that, political acument is in such drought that some think draughting Bill Shorten, with 5% support (6% of Labor voters), is a winning strategy.
No wonder Bush is happy to be photographed with Howard – he’s hoping some of Howard’s standing and luck will rub-off on the Republicans and him in the mid-term elections.



Posted by Graham at 4:14 pm | Comments (1) |
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May 16, 2006 | Graham

Insanity in the RAN – Peter Cabban to Robyn Fahey



One of the most striking aspects of the bastardisation of Lieutenant Commander Robyn Fahey is the attempted use of a medical mis-diagnosis to incarcerate her for sanity.
It’s striking not just because the doctor who made the mis-diagnosis is still practicing, not just because it is an extreme and bizarre way to deal with dissent, but because it also played a part in the notorious Voyager disaster.
As Peter Cabban relates in his book Breaking Ranks Duncan Stevenson, Captain of the Voyager threatened to have him committed. Cabban was second-in-command and convinced of the unfitness of the Stevenson to be in-charge. As a result Cabban resigned five weeks before the collision.
Both stories sound unlikely, except that as the ABC showed last night, Fahy’s misdiagnosis was written down and still exists.
Cabban tells his story like this:

It was, but it was an extreme situation. We were going to sea in a typhoon and seven days later in Subic Bay he had found that during the five days he was incarcerated I had conducted punishment parades and signed them and tried to get them out of the ship as evidence that I had command, and he in the meantime had got all the officers to support him except David Martin and was going to have me certified and transported home unconscious in a straight jacket and my mind destroyed by ECT (Electro-Convulsive Therapy).

Corruption has long been a feature of the Australian Navy. It’s a pity that Fahy is distancing herself from the calls of the Opposition for a Royal Commission. To raise the issue as she did last night on the 7.30 Report, and then to step back and take a negotiated settlement, would surely be a pointless conclusion to what to date appears to have been a determined quest to assert not just her own rights, but those of other women who want to be naval officers.



Posted by Graham at 2:23 pm | Comments (2) |
Filed under: Australian Politics

May 10, 2006 | Graham

Questions for Bill Shorten



Bill, if belonging to a union is such a good idea why is it that you are only acting on safety problems at the Beaconsfield mine after they’ve proved fatal? Rather than just calling for an inquiry into the mine company’s management of the mine shouldn’t you be having a long hard look at your own operation? Maybe it’s time to allow alternative representatives to unions to handle industrial issues and admit that life’s been so cosy for the union movement for so long that they’ve stopped to offer a valuable service.
But then, if John Howard and Alexander Downer can walk away from the AWB scandal unscathed, why should your situation be any different? It’s not as though it was your job to run the mine, just represent the interests of the workers, and if no-one directly told you that there were any problems, even though plenty of people apparently knew, then it couldn’t be your responsibility in any way…could it?



Posted by Graham at 12:09 pm | Comments (7) |
Filed under: Australian Politics

May 10, 2006 | Graham

Orphan tax and super



Tax cuts and spending increases – the Treasurer would seem to have covered it all. That’s certainly the impression from today’s papers, but that’s partly a function of the people who write newspapers – they’re employees, and they’re more likely to be older than average and/or have families. It’s these three groups at whom the budget is targeted.
Being an employer gives me a slightly different perspective and two issues jump out. The first is the tax on fringe benefits which has been lowered from 48.5% to 46.5%. When the top personal rate is now 42% (and according to the Treasurer will only be paid by 2% of tax payers), and companies pay tax at 30%, this is an anomaly.
Fringe Benefits Tax was introduced by Keating to ensure that high earners didn’t salary package and avoid paying their proper rate of tax. This at a time when the top tax rate cut in somewhere around $50,000 p.a. and was paid by a significant proportion of the workforce. These days I suspect FBT is primarily paid on provision of company cars and entertainment, they certainly are in my company. Both of these benefits are frequently paid to workers who earn much less than the $150,001 required to pay the top tax rate these days.
The result of leaving the FBT rate virtually unchanged while other rates have been radically rejigged and lowered is to penalise provision of these benefits through the company, rather than to equalise their treatment with those paid directly through wages. It’s about time that FBT was paid at a rate which reflected the top rate of tax paid by the recipient rather than a top rate of tax that’s paid by no-one.
The second issue is that my savings are tied up in my business, not superannuation. Every dollar that I put into my business comes from dollars that I have paid tax on, and I pay tax on every dollar that comes out, including from investments made with the sale of my business after I retire (in the unlikely event that ever happens). Where is the reward for taking the risks that I do when those who contribute to super do so out of before tax income, receive tax advantages on the income their super fund receives, and now take their money out the other end without paying tax on it?
For a government that claims to be in favour of sturdy self-reliance it seems that many of their policies are designed to encourage a grey urban conformity.



Posted by Graham at 7:50 am | Comments Off on Orphan tax and super |
Filed under: Australian Politics

May 08, 2006 | Graham

Is Guy Rundle right – are blogs fading?



Guy Rundle, writing in Crikey, makes a case that blogging will go the same way as CB radios.

As with CBs, what thrilled people with blogs was “the ecstasy of communication”, the pure fact of being out there in the wide cyberworld – in other words, the form rather than the content. What stales the experience is what some have thought was its greatest attraction – its networked capacity, which makes everyone producer and consumer, and hence collapses the notion of an audience (since time does not expand, while blog numbers do).
What most realise is that blogging is the illusion of connection, publishing into a void and thus doubly isolating. Those blogs that survive will and are evolv(ing) into multi-person sites, some with collective and decentred ways of uploading, others with hierarchies essentially identical to paper editing.
This repeats the birth of newspapers out of the “pamphlet wars” of the 17th century – the latter a product of the creation of a cheap, single operator platen press. This may be the necessary stage of development required to create a media sphere which genuinely overturns the mass media model – one in which a range of well-edited moderate circulation outlets can charge and get subscriptions. Whether they could turn into full newsgathering organisations remains to be seen.

Can’t say that I agree with him, or that I disagree with him. Most blogs are by their nature ephemeral, particularly single author ones. There’s going to be turnover. A trail of empty blogs doesn’t mean the species is dying out, anymore than a row of tombstones means man is about to become extinct.
On the other hand, when we invented On Line Opinion which is in effect a super blog created before the term blog had even been coined we decided that to work it had to be multi-author and it had to have a newspaper style hierarchy. That others are coming to the same conclusion is not surprising. OLO‘s circulation figures (and Crikey‘s as well) say that all along we were right. Which doesn’t mean that I’m about to stop blogging, although it’s been difficult to find the time lately for reasons that have to do with where you take a super blog when the world is waking up that it was the right way to go in the first place. You always need to be ahead of the game.
Update: Mark Bahnisch has posted the whole of Rundle’s article at http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/05/09/guy-rundle-on-blogs/



Posted by Graham at 10:08 pm | Comments (2) |
Filed under: Media
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