If the New South Wales Liberals had been on the ball, the Greens would have had their first lower house beach-head in mainland Australia in Port Jackson. If the Liberals had preferenced the Greens’ Jamie Parker ahead of Sandra Nori, Parker would have won the seat.
Our polling that election showed that a possible Greens boil-over was on – they were polling around 30%, more than usual in our polls. According to our poll on Victoria the Greens are polling 45% of our sample. While they won’t do that in the real world, it is an indication of how motivated, numerous and active they are, and it means they are in a position to win seats, but to be sure they need the Liberals to preference them.
A win in one lower house seat in Victoria, and maybe more, would be a great result for the Greens. There is a large group of passionate Australians who are disenfranchised by the mainstream parties. They have gravitated to the Greens and this would be accelerated by a Greens win. The Greens have lost momentum to the Democrats in the polls, but they could make this a mere statistical blip with the right result.
A win for the Greens would also be a win for the Liberals. Not only would it deny Labor one or two seats, important if there is a close result, but it potentially forces Labor to the left.
The political battles in Australia are won by occupying one side or the other of the socio-demographic divide and reaching into the conservative blue-collar vote. John Howard has achieved this federally. The failure of the state Liberals is almost entirely due to their inability to duplicate the trick because state Labor has firmly grasped this constituency. A Greens win, if it moves Labor to the left, will losen its grip and free these voters up so that the Liberals can have a chance of winning them over.
Full marks to the Victorian Liberal Party machine for cunning, and the Greens for coming of age.