I knew it was complicated in Iraq, but not this complicated. This report in the New York Times suggests that rather than a civil war Iraq has a state of anarchy (if that isn’t an oxymoron).
“The killing in Baghdad in recent months has primarily been the result of sectarian violence, as Shiites have sought to drive Sunnis from mixed neighborhoods and Sunnis have retaliated…
“In Sunni-controlled Anbar Province…fighting is mainly between insurgents and American troops…
“In southern cities like Basra, dominated by Shiites, the fighting is a combination of battles between rival militias vying for power, warring tribes and organized crime…
“‘In northern Basra, the fighting is mainly between three warring tribes…The death squads are typically related to political maneuvering and tribal gain. Then there are rogue elements of militias aiming attacks on the multinational forces.'”
These quotes are contained in an article about a raid on a jail in Basra by 1400 B ritish and Iraqi troops run by the Serious Crimes Unit. It seems that the unit was conducting the serious crimes so drastic action was required to disband them and rescue the prisoners that they were holding. Apparently 100 of them were crammed in to a cell 30 feet by 40 feet.
Moqtada al-Sadr is implicated. That’s no surprise. It’s in the Shiite part of Iraq, and his name is becoming increasingly prominent in the manouevring for power post the US invasion.
December 26, 2006 | Graham
The complexities of Iraqi violence
December 13, 2006 | Graham
DLP breathes life into Democrats
One Democrat to another – it’s the preference deals that count. Many have been predicting the end of the Australian Democrats at the next federal election. Those people can’t count. But the Victorian Democratic Labor Party can, and their two victories in the Victorian upper house demonstrate that even with a vote lower than 3% smart preference deals can make everything right.
In the latest polls the Australian Democrats have been polling around 5% in a number of states, which is better than the DLP did in Victoria. Added to that, the quota in a senate election where there are six positions available, is lower than for a Victorian region where there are only 5 positions.
So, if the ADs can convince all the major parties they’re an easier group to work with than the Greens and that preference strategies ought to reflect this, they may do better than all the pundits predict.
They shouldn’t rely on this happening – backroom deals are no substitute for getting out and grabbing first preferences – but it would be well worth their while to see whether they can fund the premium on this insurance policy.
December 11, 2006 | Graham
Congratulations Kevin! from James B
This email from James B turned up in my intray and I thought it deserved a wider audience:
Congratulations on your election to the leadership of the Labor Party. One feels sorry for Kim Beasley, especially in the circumstances of his brother’s death. However, it is true that he would have handed a “historic” 5th term to the utterly undeserving Mr Howard et al in any case. Forgive me the presumption, but if Kimbo’s time at the helm teaches us anything it’s this:
- Don’t run blindly after Howard in a vain attempt not to get “wedged”. No one will respect you for it. Wherever possible, drive the wedge back the other way.
- Never accept Howard’s characterisation of the Labor Party as poor economic managers. Did 13 years under Labor amount to nothing more than poor economic management?! How offensive is that! When Howard carps on about 17% interest rates, remind him of the vexed issue of housing affordibility and rising debt levels under his watch. Wedge him!
- When Howard boasts about employment levels, remind him of the decline in manufacturing and secondary industry generally, together with all those valuable skill sets. Are we all to become burger flippers in Amerikan fast food outlets, I hear you cry?!
- Never apologise for Labor’s historic connection with the Labour Movement. Why should you? Celebrate it! The Labour Movement is a proud all-Ozzie tradition. Why it’s as Ozzie as Ned Kelly. It’s as Ozzie as the Eureka Stockade. It’s as Ozzie as Uluru! What’s wrong with Organised Labour? I’ll tell you this for free … it’s the ONLY thing the “big end of town” respects the Labor Party for. They’re NOT interested in social equity issues. Why would they choose a “Libor Party” over a “Liberal Party” UNLESS they wanted to keep the Unions sweet … as Bob Hawke did. A neutered Union Movement is death to the Labor Party.
- Trumpet your social equity values loud and clear! Push the wedge back the other way.
- Fair enough, wave the nationalist flag if you must, but NEVER allow yourself to get lured into murderous Amerikan adventures far and wide at the behest of a crazed crowd of criminal warmongers and a dry-alcoholic President with megalomaniacal fantasies of Redemptive Vengeance.
- Come clean on the Israel question. We DON’T like racists, bigots, and landgrabbing thieves around here. We DON’T like societies that have no declared borders. We DON’T like governments which ignore UN resolution after UN resolution. We DON’T like segret services such as Mossad which use the motto “wage war through deception”. And we DON’T like countries which refuse to sign up the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Phuck ’em!!
- Don’t let Howard “out-mate” you. As far as Howard is concerned, “Mateship” is part of the chess game. Beasley, incredibly, let a neo-Tory such as Howard “own” the term “mate”. Are you a “mate”, Kevin?
The Politicals would take credit for the rising and setting of the sun if you let them. Don’t let them. And don’t let the Labor Party carry on as the “Libor Party” or worse … the “Laboral Party”. No one will respect you for it, least of all the big end of town!
James B
Bondi
December 08, 2006 | Graham
Flegg Water Options
Queensland Liberal Leader Bruce Flegg is going to the Internet with the issue of recycling water for domestic uses. It’s a critical one for Brisbane where dams are at critical levels and the government procrastinates, playing for political safety by promising to run a $10M plebiscite on the issue in March next year.
He’s established a site www.wateroptions.net and is running an online plebiscite – cost a few thousand dollars. The site carries information from all sides of the argument, although Flegg favours the use of treated recycled water. There’s also an Internet ad, which you can see just below:
National Forum built the site for Dr Flegg and we’re looking forward to seeing how it runs. So far, very few Australian politicians have used the ‘net for connecting with voters. If a few more were prepared to experiment like Flegg I think we’d see a whole new generation of political activism. (The reason for the so-called “political disconnect” is not that people don’t care about issues anymore, just that they hate going to meetings.)
There are sites around like GetUp that do this to a certain extent, but they aren’t actually connected to any of the formal levers of power, and you have to share their point of view to use them. From what I can see, the Flegg site is a genuine attempt to inform voters and help them to influence policy by showing what they think through a transparent online voting mechanism.
If you’re interested in supporting this initiative I can send you the code that generates the advertisement.