The problem for John Howard is that people have just made up their minds that they want a change of government, so there’s not much that will deter them. That doesn’t mean that Labor doesn’t have some problems holding on to them.
GetUp commissioned research which suggests that the Labor vote is lagging in the Senate. If this research is correct – and when dealing with GetUp one has to be sceptical in the same way as if you were dealing with one of the political parties – then voters are taking out insurance on a big Labor swing and hedging their lower house bets with their upper house ones.
The same effect can take place in the lower house in safe seats, as research that I have conducted with The Australian demonstrates. Take Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. A number of respondents said they would normally have voted Labor this time, but wouldn’t for various reasons, including their concern that Rudd Labor will be virtually indstinguishable from Howard Liberal.
Peter Garrett’s remarks will help to soothe this group. But they are unlikely to impact on the last-time Liberal voters that have moved to Labor. They are so keen for a change of government that Garrett’s remarks will fail to register with them. Who’s Peter Garrett? This election is all about Kevin.
November 06, 2007 | Graham
Garrett’s comments probably positive for Labor
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I think Aussies are a conservative lot at heart.
Most would prefer to let labor have the lower house seats and have independents, where we are lucky to have quality candidates. I for one would advocate an upper house that way, too much”me too” perhaps.
fluff4
Comment by frank luff — November 6, 2007 @ 9:32 am
The electorate at large do not have a grasp of the economy,so they just react to their most base of urges,the hip pocket.Thus all political decisions are about short term gain.
Interest rates have risen again today and John Howard is apologising profusely.Much of this inflation is caused by fuel prices,food prices due to Coles/Wollies market domination,the drought,and State Govt taxes and charges.Too many of us are in serious debt,and the RBA could have overstepped the mark,thus sending us into the first recession since 1991.NSW in particular is not in good enough shape to cope with any mare increases.
My final Jibe at Peter Garrett;
“How can you sleep when your ears are burning?”
“How can we dance when the worm is turning?”
“The time has come”
“A tax is a fact”
“We’ll change our minds”
“And never give it back!”
Labor glitz may well win over Coalition substance,but who will be the the losers?
Comment by Arjay — November 7, 2007 @ 8:46 pm
Er, Arjay… substance? What substance…?
Comment by Chade — November 8, 2007 @ 1:53 pm
Try to be more cautious in respect of the “Get Up” organisation, since in their business to assert that they are not a political party, and run no candidates for election, they seem to be only to complicit with ASIO processes: and in that might be a front for promoting the concept that labour will rapidly prove worthless after being elected.
Mind I am not saying this lightly either, and have a bit of real world evidence, but of the sort that might take about five hundred pages to divulge.
The overt absurity is that they are all in favour of discrimination against folk for our appearance: eg hairdos and clothing, (our ‘get up’) as though anything other than a police uniform is a silly buggers dress ups game.
Not that such a thing ought to prevent us from enabling their ample resources to work to promote real social justice, of course.
Can anybody verify where their resources are coming from; perhaps to prove me one way or the other, or not?
Comment by Curaezipirid — November 8, 2007 @ 6:09 pm
Substance Shade?Paying off labor’s $96 billion debt and producing a $90 billion surplus.Unemployment at 4.5%,Aussie dollar at 30 yr highs,93c US compared to Labor which had our dollar approaching 40c US,inflation rate now 3.5%,Keating’s inflation and unemployment rates 10% plus,interest rates are now about 7% and under Keating/Hawke,17%,the Coalition brought us through the Asian economic meltdown in the late 90’s,the European and US recessions of 2001,we are weathering the sub-prime US mortage crisis presently.
Federal Labor’s past track records have been absymal just like all their present State Labor Govts.You Labor voters are in denial.Tinsel town has stolen your ability to reason.
Comment by Arjay — November 9, 2007 @ 6:51 am
Arjay,
the Coalition also brought us a chronic long term current account deficit and a foreign debt of 50% of the country’s GDP, very impressive. We’ll see whether private debt matters.
Comment by Russell — November 9, 2007 @ 4:50 pm
Russell, both the major parties believe in lowering of tarrifs,so the balance of payments deficit will continue to grow no matter who is in power.
Who said that the Coalition were perfect?Labor both Federally and at a State level are just pathetic!
Comment by Arjay — November 9, 2007 @ 6:01 pm
Arjay,
The coalition is certainly not perfect they have left us with a foreign debt time bomb, Howard’s time bomb. Labor would have made some efforts to promote exports and not relied on neo-liberal ideological fantasies and short term considerations.
Comment by Russell — November 10, 2007 @ 7:32 am
Russell the Balance of payments deficit was $300 billion when keating was in power This was 50% of GDP.Our GDP is now $1000 billion so our deficit is really the same.
Comment by Arjay — November 10, 2007 @ 6:55 pm
Arjay,
Are you confusing the current account deficit( 4-5%) with our foreign debt,which has been growing as a % of our GDP? The current account deficits have created the massive foreign debt.
Comment by Russell — November 11, 2007 @ 4:09 pm
Russell regardless of the semantics of the numbers,Labor still believes in reducing tarrifs as does the Coalition.The deficit will continue to grow unless we either lower our wages to compete with India/China or raise tarrifs.
The electorate and superficially Labor are in denial.We cannot have cheap products from OS and expect not to pay a price.That is the reality that the electorate will not face and Labor are trying to sugar coat this election with promises of a watered down IR system when in fact they will keep most of what the Coalition has instigated.It is classical hypocracy and slight of hand.
Labor will keep the the harsher aspects of IR,ie individual contracts and keep unfair dismissal,which is a rod for the back of small business.
No one has a right to a job.In our society you can very easily be self employed,but that for many,it is a bridge too far.
Comment by Arjay — November 11, 2007 @ 7:43 pm
Is it me? Am i missing something? they are all trying to buy us..with our own money!..Why cant we have it at times other than than the ones which put THEM in power..??..
Comment by Richard — November 17, 2007 @ 7:11 pm