February 27, 2009 | Graham

It’s 50/50 – first quant poll of the Queensland election



(Cross post from WTPW)

The Courier Mail published a Galaxy poll this morning which has the Government and Opposition each on 50% of the two-party preferred vote.

This is broadly consistent with my prediction that the LNP would win 12 to 15 seats, which was based on the softness in the government vote that our polling has been showing.

Galaxy also finds that the Greens vote is 8%, which is consistent with our polling.

Anna Bligh is also preferred premier – 50% versus 33% to Springborg. 64% expect Labor to win, and most voters believe that neither party deserves to win.

Ominously for the LNP, the only issue where they are rated as being superior to Labor is health. Balancing that, on the economic front, the loss of Queensland’s triple A rating saw one in five say they were less likely to vote for the government.

At the moment you have to buy a hard copy of the paper to see more detail. Hopefully the survey results will be up on the web later.



Posted by Graham at 9:53 am | Comments Off on It’s 50/50 – first quant poll of the Queensland election |
Filed under: Uncategorized

February 24, 2009 | Graham

It’s depressing – TNS survey



(Cross posted from What the people want).
A TNS survey conducted around the same time as our last federal political omnibus comes to similar conclusions. If respondents were given $1,000 surplus only $220 would be spent with the rest being saved or used to pay down debt.
TNS also finds that 57% of Australians think we are heading into a Depression, and 51% think the crisis will last another one or two years.
What this should say to politicians is that giving more money to Australians at any time in the next two years would be a very poor way to stimulate the economy because most of it will be saved. Which is what our research said.
It also makes you wonder who is advising Lawrence Springborg in Queensland. Today he claimed that Labor is “playing up the scope of the financial crisis“. When 57% of your constituents are calling it a depression, they’re not likely to give you marks for insight when your claim is so different from the reality they perceive. If anything, they’d probably think that Anna Bligh is being unduly optimistic when she says “Things are likely to get worse before they get better over the next 12 months”.
What the Queensland polling is saying to me is that Springborg’s best chance of besting Bligh is to claim that things are much worse than she is claiming, and that is why she is going early. I might need to start revising my forecast of seats to change hands! Despite claiming for months that Bligh was going to have an early election the Lib/Nats don’t seem to know what their key messages should be.



Posted by Graham at 11:12 pm | Comments (3) |
Filed under: Uncategorized

February 24, 2009 | Graham

Liberal Nationals should win 12 to 15 seats



It is really too early to be predicting election results, but with the Queensland election scheduled for the 21st March, there’s not much time left. So here is my “prediction”. The Liberal National Party should win 12 to 15 seats, all other things being equal.
Labor has effectively been in power since 1989, with a brief interregnum between 1996 and 1998. Over the last 20 years it has run the state into the ground to such an extent that the same people who rated the toxic debt in the US AAA can only give its borrowings a AA+ rating, worse than even NSW which is the basket case state in Australia. It has also lost 9 members of parliament to retirement, most of whom will be replaced by what are effectively party hacks.
On this performance claims to be a “safe pair of hands” should reinforce the perception that this government is all spin and no substance. However the government has a huge margin of safety in terms of seats, and is favoured by an electoral redistribution that would allow it to win with just 49.5% of the vote.
You can get a good handle on how the seats fall from this analysis by David Fraser. Labor has 58 seats (since the preparation of these figures Labor lost one seat through defection to the Greens of Indooroopilly MLA Ronan Lee), and a working majority is 45, meaning it can lose 13 seats and still have a majority.
However, the redistribution last year notionally gives Labor three extra seats, so they can “lose” 16 and still govern in their own right.
My prediction is based on the redistributed seats, so it is for a line-ball result.
Many commentators are saying that the Liberal Nationals need to win 20 seats. This is wrong because it discounts the possibility of a minority government. The last Coalition government in Queensland was a minority government supported by Independent Liz Cunningham, the member for Gladstone. There are 5 independents in the Queensland Parliament, and most of them would be likely to favour the LNP over Labor, meaning that the LNP can govern with less than 45 seats in Parliament. The same is also true of Labor, although because of the composition of the Independents, they would have more trouble.
There is one caveat on my prediction – and that is that all other things should be equal. The LNP is in a good position, but it can easily squander it with the sort of inept campaigning that has characterised each of its campaigns since 1998.
They have to resist the temptation to make big spending promises and keep the focus on the government. This election isn’t about whether Queensland needs a “safe pair of hands” or “the Queensland you want”, but whether anyone could do worse than the government in managing the economy. This is not an election to raise expectations, but to lower them.



Posted by Graham at 9:14 am | Comments (4) |
Filed under: Australian Politics

February 19, 2009 | Graham

The sun still shines downunder.



You frequently hear complaints that with all our sunlight Australia ought to be a leader in solar energy. They reached a crescendo about the time that Dr Shi Zhengrong was revealed as a billionaire after training at the University of Sydney and taking his solar research home to China where he made his fortune.
Of course the problem for any country is that you can only back so many projects, and just because one that got away has made a lot of money it doesn’t mean that you should have backed it, let alone every project that is put up.
So I was interested to see the CSIRO announcement that they are starting a print-run of solar cells using a similar process to that used to print dollar bills.
This sounds like the sort of project that could easily make billions of dollars if it is successful. Odds of that sound good, paritcularly as the researchers are 6 months ahead of schedule already.



Posted by Graham at 10:03 am | Comments (4) |
Filed under: Environment

February 19, 2009 | Ronda Jambe

Let’s kill the Carbon Pollution Reinforcement Subsidy



Beware the policy that has no opponents in high places. During the US elections it was a reality check when the financial crisis came to a boil, and instantly both parties were in complete agreement about the need for a bail out. Much less being said about the redesign of the system to deter future foolishness.
Here, the outrageously badly designed CPRS, known to activists as the Carbon Pollution Reinforcement Subsidy, has equally wide support, with the help of the coal industry’s deep pockets.
Cracks are starting to appear, in the form of a Parliamentary Enquiry, but this won’t report until after the legislation is tabled, ironically around Earth Day in late March.
Disencentivising individuals and small business to consider different approaches to their energy and consumption habits, because their credits will just be bought up by the big polluters, is public policy insanity. Complexity is another hallmark of bad legislation, and the CPRS has that going for it, too.
These days the smart money (if that’s not an oxymoron, given the state of the money markets) is with a carbon tax. This could be as low as $25 a tonne, but should probably be higher to get the message across.
We need a strong disencentive to change our direction. We cannot continue to produce electricity from coal and export this most filthy of fossil fuels. Why? Because it is bad for us, our economy, and for Australia’s image in the world. Short term, maybe we can get away with it, but what do you really think lies around the corner?
People clearly differ in what they consider obvious, or there wouldn’t have been an article in the paper about the intelligence of paying more than the minimum off your credit card.
You know the world is starting to ‘get’ climate change when the latest James Bond movie makes the point that water is now more precious than oil. Our smart businesspeople don’t want the green boat to leave without them.
We need to be very clear on sending the right signals to other alternatives. These alternatives are not just for renewable energy, as that has clear limitations. The incentives for change have to be strong enough to reach into what some might call the ‘soft’ economy. This includes urban design, better small scale transport, and flexible arrangements such as community gardens, recycling centres and social learning databases.
Green entrepreneurs are turning a quid in California with projects that make you scratch your head, but somehow work. The desire for change is a deep well.
Such approaches may now be small bickies, but they offer the hope of building what the CPRS as currently framed will further erode: actions by civil society working together with small business and green entrepreneurs. Who has ever really counted the contributions of these groups? There is lots of research on volunteers, carers, and non-profits, but the collective impact of a change of consciousness?
All technologies and public policies have implications for the design of society, and dealing with climate change is a colossal challenge for democracy as we now know it.
Not for nothing does Al Gore call it a ‘crisis of governance’. There is a surge in the ALP to stregthen the embryonic Labor Environment Action Network; a Sydney friend is shaking the branches of that democratic tree. I’m hoping the first rotten fruit to fall is the CPRS.
fruit tree.jpg



Posted by Ronda Jambe at 9:02 am | Comments (8) |
Filed under: Environment

February 16, 2009 | Graham

Anna4Qld



Anna Bligh’s been copping it because she had her website Anna4Qld built by an interstate firm at the same time that the site boosts Bligh’s “plan to protect Queensland jobs”. It’s this sort of parochialism that I hate about Queensland.
It’s a bit hypocritical of her to talk about Queensland jobs while having the site built interstate, but that’s an inconsistency inherent in the nonsense of talking about Queensland jobs when you live in a national and international economy. But where she is really open to criticism is that it is such a hopeless site.
The site pretends to be Web 2.0 when it is so slick and spin-heavy that it shouts “phony”. If you want to criticise it, do so because it is incompetent.
This might have been the company that designed the Kevin 07 website, but it doesn’t look like the same team did it. Kevin 07 was built on open-source content management system Joomla which uses PHP. This site uses .NET, the Microsoft product. The Kevin 07 site was folksy. This site is as folksy as one of those capped-teeth US television ads for hair shampoo. Someone is making a lot of money shooting video with high production values – just the opposite of the shaky cam approach that pays dividends on the ‘net.
The design suggests that graphic, rather than web, designers are the driving force. Little things give this away, like the fact that the title of the web page is “Welcome to my new website!”. (Note the exclamation mark – gotta convey excitement!) What information does this provide? LIke whose website? By contrast all the other web pages currently open in my browser tell me useful things like “On Line Opinion Polling”, “Microsoft .NET Framework”, “On Line Opinion – Administration”. No problems working out what each of them is about, apart from Anna’s.
Then there is the section of the home page that promises “Queenslanders share their ideas for our state’s future” and features this comment. “When times are tough, like at the moment I feel much better knowing that we have a Labor government. They look after the workers & make sure nobody gets left behind… PS my daughter is a huge fan of Anna! Sue, Ebenezer” (There’s that exclamation mark again.) Excuse me, but that is supposed to be an “idea for our state’s future”?
Barack Obama has just taken Internet campaigning to new heights, but you wouldn’t know it looking at Anna’s site. It is brouchureware with a few things tacked on to make it look like it is really interactive. But the interaction smells as phony as the rest of the site.
Our research says that one of the hesitations that Queenslanders have when thinking of voting for Anna Bligh is that she is all spin. This site reinforces that message.
Ironically, the opposition is probably doing better with their web strategy because they aren’t promising as much. Springborg’s site is brochureware, but it doesn’t pretend to be any more. So you actually get some clear messages when you visit his site without any attempt to present them as other people’s independent third party endorsements.
And Springborg is actually ahead of Bligh in the real Web 2.0 engagement. When you click on Anna’s Facebook link you go to a site designated as a politician’s site. When you click on Lawrence’s link you go to a personal Facebook profile. There’s no doubt that Lawrence, who has 929 friends, is more digitally native than Anna, who has 287 supporters.
So stop carping about who built Anna’s site, and start looking at what the site actually says about the Bligh government. This Queensland parochialism is nauseating.



Posted by Graham at 8:54 pm | Comments (7) |
Filed under: Online campaigning

February 13, 2009 | Graham

Government takes a second look at emissions trading



(Cross posted from What the people want)
The federal government appears to have been reading our research, or similar, on an emissions trading scheme.

According to The Australian Online

TREASURER Wayne Swan has asked a powerful House economics committee to judge whether the proposed emissions trading scheme is the best way to tackle climate change…
The Australian Online understands the move may be an attempt to gather evidence to discredit opposition to emissions trading by the Coalition.
There is also speculation it is designed to pre-empt any findings of a Senate committee inquiry.

Perhaps.
It could also be a rational response to research like ours showing that for a variety of reasons voters across the spectrum are unhappy with it.
It is probably coincidental that the decision occurred only days after we released our research. But then again, I have started emailing summaries of key research to federal parliamentarians, and some have even been responding on our comments threads, so who knows?
If you are not already a member of our online research panel and would like to be considered for future polls, then please send us your name and email address by clicking here.



Posted by Graham at 5:22 am | Comments (1) |
Filed under: Environment

February 13, 2009 | Graham

Queensland Labor’s “Don’t risk it” strategy?



(Cross posted from What the people want).
My local state member Gary Fenlon (ALP) has a message for me – “Keep Greenslopes in safe hands”.
The message presumably hopes to leverage the uncertainty that tough times bring, is consistent with the fact that Labor is regarded by voters as the best party to handle most issues, and exploits voter concerns that the Liberal National Party is an unknown, new force put together from two adversarial parties that has no strongly defined policies.
Parties exercise tight control over candidates these days, so I am assuming that someone at ALP HQ is reading the same sort of research that we are, and shaping his message accordingly.
I’m not sure what research the Liberal National Party is reading. A billboard at the Normanby Fiveways features two local candidates and Lawrence Springborg.
“We can deliver the Queensland we all want” the billboard proclaims.
While our research shows dissatisfaction with Anna Bligh it doesn’t show any higher satisfaction levels with the Liberal National Party. And while it shows voters unsure of what the LNP stands for, it is not likely that they will find an assertion that the party “can deliver” credible, devaluing your whole message.
In these times of uncertainty, a “Queensland we all want” is also likely to be deemed a mirage. One that’s “not too bad” is more likely to be seen as achieveable.
When you pitch a message that people don’t believe you evoke what is called “cognitive dissonance”. Disbelief at one statement is transferred to all other statements, even if they are true.
(For a brilliant example of how cognitive dissonance can be used, check out the British Conservative Party’s exploitation of Gordon Brown’s claim that Britain has “saved the world” to undermine his credibility on everything.)
We are not yet in an election, so there is time for the pitches to change. If they don’t the new Liberal National Party is definitely heading for a debut loss.



Posted by Graham at 5:06 am | Comments (3) |
Filed under: Australian Politics

February 12, 2009 | Graham

Another reason for winds to head south?



A few days ago I drew attention to work that suggested the Indian Ocean Dipole was responsible for causing drought in southern Australia . I contrasted that to a view from the Bureau of Meteorology that the change was caused by the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole.
Now there is an another candidate – aerosols (a fancy name which covers any fine particle in the atmosphere including dust and soot). According to CSIRO scientist Leon Rostayn:

Recent climate modelling at CSIRO shows that there may be important effects on Australian climate due to aerosol pollution from the Northern Hemisphere. These include an increase of rainfall in north-western Australia, and an increase of air pressure over southern Australia, which may have contributed to less rainfall there.

Would be good to know whether either of the other two are included in this model.



Posted by Graham at 10:13 am | Comments (4) |
Filed under: Environment

February 11, 2009 | Graham

Irish joke?



The Northern Irish Environment Minister, Sammy Wilson, “has banned government television adverts in Northern Ireland warning of the effects of climate change“.
This might seem a little “Irish” on a couple of fronts. For it to make sense you have to realise that England has devolved power to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, so as in Australia, you can have three levels of government in the one area. It’s not his own government ads that he is banning, but the UK government’s.
Still, while I am used to government propaganda telling me Global Warming is a problem, this is the first instance of which I am aware where a government has turned the propaganda off.
I have a fair bit of sympathy for Mr Watson when he cricises the ads for “attempt[ing] to tell people that simple measures like changing their lightbulbs and turning off TVs from stand-by mode could help prevent them ‘wrecking the world'”. Whatever your stance on global warming this is not just clearly nonsense, but the same level of empty activism that has been recommended by our own just-past and now-present federal governments.
In Australia, the latest Newspoll figures suggest that belief in Anthropogenic Global Warming is near universal. Perhaps colder temperatures this winter in the northern hemisphere have changed sentiment there, or the Irish were smarter to start with.
The bushfires here may well have done the opposite, intensifying belief. I’ve found it distressing that the propagandists like Clive Hamilton and David Karoly have already been out before the fires have even gone cold. It’s a ridiculous proposition that 0.6 degrees of temperature change would have made a difference one way or the other with the weather patterns that prevailed in Victoria over the last week or so, meaning it’s unethical and unscientific to trade on the tragedy in this way.



Posted by Graham at 6:19 am | Comments (12) |
Filed under: Environment
Older Posts »