Anna Bligh has just announced her cabinet, and contrary to my expectations it is fairly adventurous. No appointment is probably more adventurous than the appointment of my new local MLA, Cameron Dick. It’s very rare for a parliamentarian to be elevated straight to the ministry.
Not only is Cameron my local MP, but I discovered when I met him (along with his brother Milton Dick, Councillor for Richlands and former State Secretary of the Queensland ALP) that he’s a keen reader of On Line Opinion. Cameron is the new Attorney-General and Minister for Industrial Relations.
Another member and reader on the fast-track is Stirling Hinchliffe who becomes the Minister for Infrastructure and Planning.
We also have three clients for our websites in the cabinet. Paul Lucas, who apart from being Deputry Premier has been given the hospital pass of health; Geoff Wilson, former mines minister is now responsible for Education and Training; and Jan Jarratt, who miraculously received a swing of over 3% to her in the last election, is a new parliamentary secretary.
While we’re drawing attention to friends and clients who’ve done well out of the last election we should also mention Phil Weightman, who looks like he will be the former member for Cleveland at the moment. He started-off with one of the most marginal Labor seats on a margin of 1.3% and looks like he might lose by around 120 votes.

(Cross-posted from What the people want). Every pollster, including us, was saying that Labor was in trouble in the Queensland election. The predicted swing was in the realm of 7 percent. From what you can tell, internal ALP research also seems to have supported this. In our last poll it appeared that the “undecideds” were breaking towards the LNP as well, and the LNP was well-placed on the issue of health, which was much more significant to voters than jobs, which was Labor’s issue.
So my prediction was that Labor would lose 12 to 15 seats. This was based on a uniform swing of around 6.6% to 8%.
In the event the Labor government may have lost 5 seats or less and has experienced a swing against it on primary votes of 4.36%. (I’m not counting seats here that were held by another party although notionally theirs). http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/changingseats.htm
Whatever movement occurred most probably happened in the last few days of the campaign. As there were no major policy announcements, or any blunders, in that period the change is most probably the result of a shift of mind by voters.
Early on the election was framed by voters as a vote of confidence in the government. Expectations were high that Labor would win. These expectations had decreased dramatically as the election progressed as you can see from the table below, to the point where a majority of our respondents expected Labor to lose.

This would have concentrated voters’ minds on the alternative government. As our polling showed, voters were unimpressed with both parties. In the end result it appears that judged one-on-one they were less impressed with the Liberal Nationals than the Labor Party.
Another factor in the swing was undoubtedly the marginal seat campaigns of both parties, local issues and the quality of local candidates. There was a huge variation in swings from a swing to the LNP of 13.6% in Hinchinbrook to a swing of 3.2% to the ALP in Whitsunday.
To adequately map these factors you would need an opinion poll sample of somewhere around 24,000, which is obviously not economically feasible. The accuracy of opinion polls therefore relies on incumbency, candidates, local issues etc. cancelling each other out. But this is not necessarily the case.
It looks from the swings as though the LNP did a very poor job of local campaigning. For example, the seat of Chatsworth would have been expected to go close to the average swing because the sitting member Chris Bombolas retired after one term in parliament, meaning that the incumbency factor was taken out of the equation. Yet the LNP failed to get any swing at all. This was the most marginal ALP seat in the state and should have been well in focus. Perhaps they were so cocky that they took it for granted.
I have produced two Leximancer maps below. The one on the left shows the issues as they were at the beginning of the campaign, and the one on the right as they were by the middle of the last week. (I know they are too small, but click on them and you will get something you can decipher.)

The image on the left is much more fragmented than the one on the right, suggesting that both the parties had successfully reduced the election to a smaller set of propositions by the end of the campaign.
Interestingly the (Global financial) Crisis has completely disappeared, even though it was Anna Bligh’s stated reason for calling an early election. A new concept appears in the second map – Government. This is larger than all the other themes and closely related to Health and Infrastructure. It suggests that the LNP has been successful in turning the election into a referendum on the government. It should also be noted that Health encompasses more than just health, with concepts inside the Health circle indicating that it is actually a catch-all for service provision.
Climate change also played a part in some electors’ minds.
The fact that judged on these maps the LNP appears to have gotten the better of the debate, underlines an important aspect of political campaigns – they are rarely about issues. In the case of this election Labor appears to have won based on a decision by voters not to risk Springborg and the LNP even though they agree with their analysis of what is wrong with the state.
I’m happy with our performance on this poll. While we didn’t capture the final result, no-one else did either, indicating that it was determined at the last moment at a time when we couldn’t have been measuring responses.
Our polling, along with that of others, would have actually helped to cause the final result by accurately measuring the level of dislike for the Labor government. By accurately describing voting intentions during the campaign we would have alerted voters to how close it could be, and inadvertently affected their decisions. This is something that professional campaigners take into account, and is part of the price you pay for knowing what is happening.

(Cross-posted from What the people want) The Australian reports today on Newspoll research which puts the Liberal National Party in a small lead over the ALP. It’s not up on Newspoll’s site yet, but it confirms Galaxy and our own findings.
Most notable movement in the figures appears to be the deterioration in Premier Anna Bligh’s satisfaction rating plunging from 52% to 47%. Springborg satisfaction is 44%, almost the same figure as Bligh, although his disapproval rating has been rising, and a larger number of people are undecided about him than Bligh.
We uncovered strong dissatisfaction with Bligh in June last year. What we detected 9 months ago appears to have leaked into the general population. This suggests that the LNP lead is likely to increase.
While our respondents haven’t moved much, the general populace has. My suspicion is that this is because our sample regularly thinks more deeply about politics than the average, but that when the average turns its mind to the same issues as an election approaches, it thinks similarly.
We are a week and a half out from the election and it is about now that most voters seriously start thinking about how they will vote. That means, assuming my theory is true, that the quantitative polls should start to capture more defections at the same time that the undecided vote collapses and tends to favour the LNP which should push the LNP vote relatively higher.
All of this assumes that nothing happens from outside the system between now and election day to radically alter perceptions. Cyclone Hamish making a landfall is just one of those potential factors; or one or other of the leaders making a major gaffe.
(Re-reading my earlier research, the only thing which doesn’t appear accurate is my prediction that there would be no early election – perhaps an example of a rogue population rather than rogue sampling.)

(Cross-posted from What the people want). Voters are bored and disillusioned with Labor – that’s the basic reason that the Liberal National Party looks likely to achieve at least a minority government after this year’s Queensland state election.
It’s an “It’s time” election, but one where there is little sense that changing governments will really create much change. There is a pervading mood that no-one could do worse than the incumbents, so someone else might as well be given a go. There’s little perceived risk in a change, because voters see so little of value in what they have now.
This qualitative analysis is based on what voters who have already swung (I’m calling them “swung voters”) are telling us and assumes that what has swung them will ultimately swing other voters.
Labor is currently running a series of ads based on jobs. Saving jobs – “It’s in our DNA,” Bligh declares. Swung voters see the most important issues as Health and Hospitals, the Economy, Education and Jobs, in that order, so why is Labor running on the least significant issue?
You could argue that the economy and jobs are the same thing, which they might be, so jobs are more important than I’m suggesting. But while they may be interlinked, voters won’t equate them unless they’re worried about their own jobs. At the moment voters’ concerns about the economy are abstract and more to do with savings and investments. Concern about jobs is likely to be much stronger later in this year, or next.
Labor is running on the most minor issue amongst Swung voters concerns because they don’t do well on the other issues. It’s the best they have.
Until recently, Health was the only issue that the Liberal National Party was judged to be superior to Labor on. So Bligh can’t effectively campaign on that. Never fight on your opponent’s strengths.
As a former state treasurer and education minister the Economy and Education also hold pitfalls. When Bligh stands on her record, our respondents react badly.
They still remember her less than transparent handling of the issue of asbestos in schools, and see the downgrading of Queensland’s credit status as a judgement on economic competence. Respondents are also antagonistic to Treasurer Andrew Fraser. Perhaps that is why, according to Galaxy, the LNP has also nosed ahead of Labor on the issue of who is best to handle the Economy.
Which leaves Jobs, a theme which has previously featured heavily in state campaigns and more recently was a decisive factor in the 2008 federal election, so it has some promise.
Will repetition of this theme be enough? The evidence suggests not. This election is being run as a presidential contest, so comparing leaders gives a good view of comparisons between the parties. When we asked swung voters why they were voting for Springborg rather than Bligh it was summed up in terms like these.
“Boring and pompous sounding is not as bad as egotistical and self-obsessed. I think Lawrence would work hard to develop a new vision for the whole of the state.” Male, 65-74
“Anna Bligh has had more than one opportunity to support the works and move QLD forward, all she is good for is same old same old. AND I DON’T WANT THE DAM.” Male, 65-74
“Qld needs a fresh start. Sweep out the old dead wood and the incompetent ministers.” Male, 55-64, Teacher
“Best of two evils” Male, 55-64, educator
“I have always voted labor and it’s not that I think Anna Bligh has been a failure but I think the time has come to cut through the spin and get on with fixing the problems. I am just sick to death of the bureacratic bunkum that has permeated the system. In fact it’s time to get rid of the states altogether and stop the wasteful duplication and get on with governing without all the crap that goes on. I am totally fed up.No-one has any vision or gumption to do what is required.” Female, 65-74
“Simply because we need a change. The Bligh Government is full of jobs for their mates and relatives and far far to many corrupt Politicians have bit the dust over the last 3 or 4 years. I will not be forgetting those who have defaulted” Male, 55-64, Sole Proprietor
“Arrogance vs naivety; botox vs bathroom towel; bully boys vs cardigans; spend spend spend vs white-uptight-middle-class iniatives “ Female, 45-54, Public Servant
Is there any hope for Anna? There is some, but it is faint. While our respondents are over Anna, they’re not really sure that they want a long-term relationship with Lawrence. Only around 20% of respondents have anything positive to say about him, meaning that his support is soft. If Springborg makes a very big mistake in the next week and a half, then Bligh could be back into the game. Or it’s just possible she may find a game-changer herself.
It would need to be a very big mistake or change in game. Even though Swung voters are by definition voting for Springborg 44% of them still expect Labor to be returned and only 22% the Liberal Nationals. The remainder are almost evenly split between forecasting a hung parliament or being unsure.
This means that there is not a lot of risk voting for Springborg because they either don’t think he will be returned, or think whoever forms the government will be forced to deal with a hostile parliament that will keep them in check. It also makes it difficult for Bligh to get the under-dog vote because voters still think she is on top.
The somnolent pace of the election campaign also isn’t helping Bligh. With no sense of urgency in the campaign you get the feeling that Labor has resigned itself to a small tail-ender. With a notional 62 seats after last year’s redistribution in the current parliament, they probably saw a benefit in losing a few, but that expectation looks to be expanding into a multi-car collision.

Subliminal factors contribute strongly to election results. That intangible “I don’t know what it is, but there is something that I don’t like about x,” feeling only needs to affect one or two percent of voters to be significant.
Labor’s handling of the subliminals in this campaign have been poor. For example, they’ve chosen formal clothes for most candidate shots that I have seen. This is presumably to emphasise authority, but in fact what I think it emphasises is that they are too smooth and out of touch with concerns of average Australians. So in my view it is feeding the LNP vote, which Labor is turbo-charging by portraying Springborg as a hayseed.
The worst example of ineptitude is the photo they are running of Anna Bligh with the little “Chairman Mao” chin that I’ve never noticed before. Anna can be fresh, girlish and relaxed, which is the image they need at the moment. Instead they’ve turned her into a dominatrix.
Here’s the Anna photo.

And here’s Mao – note the chin.

But it gets worse.
Australians recognise these eyes.

Here’s Big Sister.

This is not a good look.

(Cross posted from What the people want) When I went to find the most effective TV ads from Labor and the LNP to road-test on our surveys they were nowhere to be seen. It’s common political wisdom, and I think true, that positive ads don’t change governments, negative ads do.
Positive ads are good at reinforcing the beliefs of the already converted, but don’t motivate those who are swinging or swaying.
So the best two ads of this campaign are “Not him, not them, not now” from Labor, and the “Anna file” ad from the LibNats. You won’t find “Not him, not them, not now” on Anna’s site, but you will find generic “Labor file” versions of the “Anna file” on the LNP site.
BTW, someone needs to tell the webmaster at www.springborg.com that they’ve called the election. Seems like all the effort is going into the LNP site while the Springborg site is just another Mary Celeste on the interwebs.
Anyway, to help both sides out I thought I would put both the ads up here. I’ve been able to find “Not him etc.” thanks to Malcolm Farnsworth, but only the generic “file” ad. The one that targets Bligh personally is very powerful and runs through some negative headlines on her career in education and treasury.


I’ve also come across this interesting site (thanks to Tron Lord) – http://www.australianpoliticstv.com/.