Complex adaptive systems are what we are. Not so hard to understand: are we not part of very complex systems? Our bodies, with their intricate sub-ecosystems of microbacteria, and the evolution of cities has now been found to mimic that of our brains.
But adaptive? Some of us, sometimes. Obviously Manila has not adapted adequately to the typhoons that have been so horrendous in the past few days. Once in one hundred years? Like the Sydney sandstorm last week, or the amazing and destructive hail storm now fading from memory.
My comment when such disasters unfold is: Thank goodness there isn’t global warming! It would all be too much to make that leap from the specific to the general. And if known complexities don’t impress you, this week’s New Scientist considers a recent conference on Climate forcing of Geological and Geomorphical Hazards (pg 8). There is a possibility that sheer weight of water, or other small changes to the earth’s crust, can trigger volcanic eruptions or earthquakes. Bit of a big ask to adapt to those risks.
But adapt we shall, come hell (and it might) or high water (certainly that).
Actually, Australia already has a National Climate Change Adaptation Programme http://www.climatechange.gov.au
Its aims are modest, considering it only has $14.2 m over 4 years, and the result will likely be more information and more policies. It’s a start.
But some companies, communities and individuals aren’t waiting for government to set the directions. The small resort town of Bundanoon, in the NSW Southern HIghlands, has banned bottled water. And it isn’t just a spit the dummy exercise: they have installed refilling water stations and fountains, and are selling reusable bottles, all with the support and cooperation of local merchants.
Some towns are becoming ‘transition towns’, a movement that will eventually become mainstream.
Are any taking the additional step of limiting not just new development, but more people? Unlikely. That would require a different economic model, and the economic rocket scientists have been slow to adapt to that challenge.
The biggest challenges come at the biggest scales. Watching Dateline last night I couldn’t help but feel empathy for the brave US Colonel, trying his best to adapt to the unbelievably harsh Afghanistan environment. He was trying to make nice to the warlords, who just wanted more goodies and the right to plunder. Such complexities are beyond my capability to deal with. Why don’t they all go home?
My adaptation efforts are limited by my personal skills, time, and a recalcitrant partner. But when the price of petrol goes exponential, we won’t have 5 cars in the driveway to contend with, as so many in our big cities do. One for each adult of driving age, isn’t that the norm?
I don’t think my hobbies are particularly unsustainable, now that digital cameras are so wonderful. Only the best get printed, no developing chemicals either. I can indulge my small fantasies, which at least are on a modest scale:
And since I do not intend to curtail my travel in my late middle age, I will instead pay for carbon credits from companies that are part of the clean development under the Kyoto treaty, which means they sponsor renewable energy in developing countries, and try to use companies that are aiming for ‘carbon neutrality’, which just means not adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
More hemp! for oils and fabric, maybe fuel. And bamboo everything, grows like a weed.
Recovering from a bad cold, I had a whack at deterring the birds from getting to my labor-intensive baby lettuces. But clearly that was silly, and needs shorter sticks. I think I can adapt it:
September 28, 2009 | Ronda Jambe
Adaptation – coming soon to a life near you
September 23, 2009 | Graham
Stimulus package could buy 955,556 schools
The federal government’s stimulus package could have bought almost one million schools, at least if it had been spent in Bangladesh.
Ethical Investments is one of the most consistent supporters of On Line Opinion through its onsite advertising. According to the media release that I have just received they have donated $140,868 to the community.
The largest grant of $45,000 made to CO-ID will build a combined primary and secondary school in one of the poorest areas of Bangladesh.
Funding was also given to 24 other social and conservation community organisations working throughout Australia and overseas.
After a difficult period in which many companies are cutting back on philanthropy, Australian Ethical continues to set the benchmark for corporate giving. Each year Australian Ethical donates ten per cent of its profits to conservation and charity organisations. Over the last decade Australian Ethical has donated nearly $1 million back into the community.
Even given the low labour costs and the lower cost of materials, as well as the different construction standards, that is a stunningly low figure to build a whole school.
A friend of mine says that the average building cost of a new housing unit in Australia is $300,000, so that amount of money would be unlikely to buy much more than the wet areas in an Australian dwelling.
You can read the whole release here. If you want to check out their investment performance you can find it here.
September 18, 2009 | Ronda Jambe
Under the Moruya Moon (10)
A long weekend at the coast with friends. Can’t beat that for a spring outing. The benign if sometimes dysfunctional public service allows me to work just 4 days per week. This helps me stay balanced. It is no longer too cold at the coast overnight, as even the insulation and lining the walls isn’t quite enough. The heat from the little oil filled electric heaters just rises to the arched ceiling, and the big windows are just getting kitted out to keep more warmth in.
Our friends played ping pong with us and helped me work out how the second hand drapes could best be deployed with minimal cuts and maximum sense. There are two types of drapes, and we seem to have solved it. Nothing will completely deter the insects, and the first morning was spent cleaning before the guests arrived. Can’t have them seeing cobwebs in the composting toilet, can we?
On Saturday we took a drive down to Bega, where I had my eyes on an old cottage just outside of town. My partner’s father used to do a lot of house building there, and I used to visit a friend in Tilba and then Bermagui. She died long ago, and the shared compound I used to be part of had the gate locked. The old stomping ground, with many memories. We visited our German painter and his wife in another town, hadn’t seen them in years either.
The property held no interest to me as an investment, because I wouldn’t live there. Not because of the value, not even the broken down state of the 1 bedroom cottage (which I thought was rather cute), but the overall dryness of the area. LIke a bone, dessicated, limp, sad. The far south coast of NSW was always a place of rolling green hills, guaranteed to gladen the heart of parched Canberrans. Some of the pictures in the Art Gallery of NSW in Sydney still show that place. Hadn’t been that far south in maybe 10 years, but my heart was heavy thinking that place may be gone forever, like the friend I used to visit.
Back at Moruya Heads, the dryness and the suddenly hot day made me think of the dam that needs cleaning up. Might need that water one day for fire-fighting, as the smoke wisping up near Guerrila Bay in the distance reminded.
Upon returning to Canberra, the news from nowhere and everywhere pours in, reminding me of how connected my modest life and concerns are to wider issues. Just a sampling, for those who might not have their ears so closely tuned to what no one wants to hear:
HUMAN-MADE CRISES ‘OUTRUNNING OUR ABILITY TO DEAL WITH THEM,’ SCIENTISTS WARN
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090911095358.htm
FAILURE TO TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE SPELLS A GLOBAL HEALTH CATASTROPHE, EXPERTS WARN
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090915192232.htm
There are calls for great international cooperation, and binding agreements. These will only be as good as the accuracy, accessibility and transparency of the information systems that underpin them. As it happens I am writing an academic article on this topic. Each article is a swan song now, but the mantra needs repeating. Copenhagen is a big opportunity, will Australia lead, or lag? How urgent can things get?
The mundane is comforting. Yesterday I moved some rhubarb plants, and got the rechargable battery and LED light for my green dollhouse display. It will be part of an exhibition of the local art group I belong to. In my civilised workplace, we discuss arrangements for the next morning tea, and I rode my bike home twice last week. I have pictures to hang, and a visiting escaped ferret to chat about. He came right upstairs and headed for the cat food; his owners now have him back. We saw the wonderful play The History Boys, and the very interesting movie Tulpan, a Kazakh version of the farmer wants a wife. No wonder Borat was filmed in Romania.
September 06, 2009 | Ronda Jambe
West Bank Story
Last night we saw Canberra Philharmonic’s production of West Side Story. Maybe the music and the singing weren’t quite Broadway, or even Sydney quality. A young woman behind me was chatting about all the shows she saw while living in London, clearly some passionate performers present. But the heart was there in the production and the audience. An ageless story, stretching back to the Capulets and the Montagues, right up to the gangs of New York. Someone is always sunny (the ones in power), and others are shitty (but they’ll have their revenge). Our species are good haters, as any member of the ALP can confirm. It doesn’t stop, and were some of those mobbing and fighting scenes intended to remind me of a scrum?
Those looking for continuity in human affairs need look no further than the West Bank. Foreign Policy mag tells me that while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ‘open’ to the idea of a settlement freeze, he first wants the government to approve construction of hundreds of new apartments on the West Bank, in addition to the 2,500 units currently being built. Just like the Jets and the Sharks agreeing to ‘rumble’ hand-to-hand, but then bringing knives.
In the blur of urgent news (earthquake, fire, civilian deaths, captive children) we would optmistically like to think Obama is different. Well, have a look at David Swanson’s Common Dreams: Obama as Bush’s Third Term. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/09/02
It’s hard to know what to focus on, in terms of action. While some of Jennifer Marohasy’s posts offer a cheerful minimisation or dismissal of environmental concerns, others fuel robust discussion about mitigation on fire or floods. This is just as important as recognising the problems exist. If only I could be cheerful, rather than an aggregator of doom. Even SBS has now mentioned the ‘perfect storm’ of environmental catastrophe.
The focus I see in all the stories is one of governance. The more complex the problem, the more the governance matters. Take this one seriously, and think about Australia’s sad water management history, surely a failure of governance:
ROCKVILLE, Md., Sept. 2 /PRNewswire- (WORLD-WIRE) CivicUS, the leading continuous advisory service firm for leadership in state and local government, recently released “Water Utilization: Awareness First” and “MS4 Permits: Playing Catch With a Live Hand Grenade.” Both Research Notes advise state and local leaders on water as an emerging threat that state and local governments and private enterprise must address.
Or take Obama and health reform, for example. What good is insurance, if claims are denied? From the Institue for Public Accuracy:
The Real Death Panels
More than one out of every five requests for medical claims for insured patients, even when recommended by a patient’s physician, are rejected by California’s largest private insurers, amounting to very real death panels in practice daily in the nation’s biggest state, according to data released Wednesday by the California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee […]
Claims denial rates by leading California insurers, first six months of 2009:
* PacifiCare — 39.6 percent
* Cigna — 32.7 percent
* HealthNet — 30 percent
* Kaiser Permanente — 28.3 percent
* Blue Cross — 27.9 percent
* Aetna — 6.4 percent
Think hospital stuff-ups in NSW, don’t even think about social services failures in protectng children. These are not separate issues, they are all about our governments, and our blissful belief that our democracy ain’t broke.
A high-flying developer shot dead in front of his son, a mysterious tape with allegations of corruption. Think Jets and Sharks, knives and tears. Like Candide, I have no choice but to cultivate my garden. I have dirt under my nails, mulch on my raspberries, and the start of a green doll house. More Sondheim, more Bernstein.
September 01, 2009 | Graham
What is the relationship between tobacco price and consumption
The Preventative Health Taskforce has just delivered its report to the government and recommends increasing the price of tobacco.
Sounds more or less reasonable to me on economic principles, except that I do know that demand for tobacco is “inelastic”, which is a fancy way of saying it doesn’t respond well to price signals.
Then while driving home I heard one of the experts on Australia Talks complain that out of an unnamed 18 countries Australia has the 16th cheapest cigarettes.
Run that by me again. I thought I knew that Australia had one of the lowest smoking levels in the developed world, and if that is the case at the same time that we have some of the cheapest cigarettes, why the level of confidence amongst “health experts” that putting their price up will lead to a decline in their use? We’re seem to be doing pretty well with a low level of price.
So I decided to do some basic investigations.
WHO has compiled an “atlas” of smoking per capita as at 2002. I could only find two developed nations with smoking levels below Australia’s 19.5%. They were Sweden 19.09% and Portugal 18.7%.
The report is not available from the Taskforce’s website yet (their What’s New page was last up-dated on the 16th April) and neither it seems is their media release. There is a June report there, which you can access from this page.
So I can’t see what they have based their assessment on, but according to News the report says:
“The price of cigarettes has not kept pace with the price of many other products and services,” the report says.
“If cigarettes in Australia were to cost as much as they do in Ireland, around $20 for a pack of 30, they would still be cheaper than the price of three hours in a city parking station, a quarter of a tank of petrol in a small car, an outing to a movie with a treat from the snack bar or one music CD download. “
So I checked the smoking rate in Ireland, which is being held up as an example. Bad example, it turns out. 31.5% smoke in Ireland – a rate more than 50% higher than ours. So much for cigarettes at $20 a packet being a panacea.
I’m beginning to suspect that the relationship between smoking and the price of tobacco is pretty tenuous. To be sure you’d need to do a full survey across the world and the information doesn’t appear to be available on the web.
What I can say, looking at the web, is that the only countries who in 2002 met the aspiration of the taskforce that only 10% of the population should be smokers were:
- Haiti 9.7%
- Libya 4.0%
- Nigeria 8.6%
- Oman 8.5%
- Rwanda 5.5%
- Senegal 4.6%
- UAE 9.0%
Seems to me that cultural factors and perhaps absolute poverty (rather than the cost of the product) are the things which ultimately drive cigarette smoking levels.
If I were a smoker, I’d feel persecuted by this particular recommendation.