As the polls predicted, the National Party won the Gaven by-election with just over an 8 percent swing. Listening to them you’d think it was actually the general election. True, a swing like that would most likely deliver them government, but by-elections tend to swing by larger margins than general elections. And they should be sobered by the fact that their primary vote only went up by 3.5%. The rest of the swing seems to more or less have gone to independent Daren Riley who won 7.71% on the basis of very few promises at all, apart from promising to be a good respresentative.
On top of that 25% of voters didn’t bother to turn up on the day – many of these could have been Labor voters who wanted to give Beattie a kick. Some could also have been Liberal voters who felt disenfranchised. Put those 25% together with the 20% of those who did vote and who voted for independents and minor parties and the major parties have nothing to sermonise about.
Yet both of them are claiming the result as proof that they will probably win the next election. No wonder people like to vote for credible independents.