The Australian Historical Association is holding its 2006 Conference at the Australian National University on July 3-7. …
One item of note is the session 11 am to 12:30 pm, Thursday “Comparing Menzies and Howard”, with:
MACKERRAS: Comparison of the Menzies and Howard Electoral Strategies …
At the start Associate Professor Malcolm Mackerras handed out a survey table. Ian Mackallaster, Australian Election Study. Contrasted with Menzines in relation to the senate. Each is a ten year PM, from the liberal party, and had their best election late in their term. For Menzies 1959 is the same as 2006 for Howard. Mackerras suggests that the next election will be Howard’s worst. In December or January Howard will “cut and run”, resiging on Australia Day next year, leaving Costello to lead the Liberal party. There will be a 4.6% swing to Labor at the subsequent election, giving them government.
Recent newspaper headlines have “why Labor keeps loosing”, but this was the case in 1960. The Labor party will win the seats Bennalong and Wentworth. This is due to the “doctor’s wives effect” and boundary changes. Unlike the USA, where the electoral boundaries are gerrymandered in favour of the Republican party.
Chifley made electoral changes which would have made a Senate victory for Menzies impossible. So Menzies called a double dissolution. In contrast Howard ran a propaganda campaign saying the Senate had been irresponsible. This only convinced the Liberal Party. Having got a majority in the Senate, Howard introduced work choices legislation. This legislation didn’t match the legislation previously rejected by the Senate. Howard got away with this due to incompetence in the Labor Party.
To come:
CAIN: Differing uses of ASIO Comparing in the Menzies and Howard Years
BROINOWSKI: Foreign Policies in the Menzies and Howard Years
HARRIS: The Differing Economic Policies of Menzies and Howard Government