If the coming Victorian election were voluntary it looks to me from our polling that the Liberal Party would be all but wiped out. When we do our online polls we always hear from a disproportionate number of Greens, about two-thirds the number of Labor voters you would expect, and only about half the percentage of Liberals in the general population.
Response rates vary from election to election and issue to issue, and generally seem to follow strength of feeling. For instance, while National Party voters are generally only a few percentage points, when we did a recent poll on a proposed amalgamation of the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland the National Party respondents outnumbered the Liberals.
The reason for these ruminations is that in our current poll on the Victorian election (you can complete the questionnaire by clicking here) we have found a record low number of Liberal respondents – three percent. This lack of enthusiasm means that the Liberals are most likely heading for a drubbing because even their support base doesn’t want to support them. It also means that Labor ought to be very scared of the Greens in a number of seats.
Greens are a record 49% of our sample. Obviously this support is not as high in the general community, but will be concentrated in some areas rather than others. We don’t have enough postcodes to be definitive about this, but inner-Melbourne is where they are likely to mostly live. The Greens are obviously going to do well in the Upper House, but our polling would suggest that they will also possibly do well in the Assembly. With the Liberal supporters so unenthusiastic, there is a good chance of a large number of them voting for the Greens strategically in seats which are safe Labor vis-a-vis a Liberal candidate, but potentially marginal if it was a contest between Greens and Labor.
We’d love to hear from more Liberals, so if you know any, please send them the URL for the questionnaire (http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/surveys/vic-election-2006.asp if they need to copy and paste into their browser address bar). Maybe its just something peculiar to our polls and Victoria.
November 09, 2006 | Graham
Victorian Liberals – where the bloody hell are they?
7 Comments
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
I’m surprised you have to ask the question, the answer is obvious.
The greens, & to a lesser extent, the labor respondents, are publicly funded. Public servants, [at work?], welfare recipients etc.
Most liberals are too busy, working 15 hours a day, to respond. There are only a few, clapped out old war horses, like me, with the time, & inclination, to bleat, on these forums.
Obviously the liberals are “right thinking”, but not very cunning.
Comment by Hasbeen — November 10, 2006 @ 9:33 am
Poppycock. It is because usually those that mostly desire to see change are from the Labor-Green side and are more outspoken about it. I find it a common phenomena on the net as a whole. The social liberals are more boisterous than the classical liberals. From what I can determine in Victoria, there is little difference between Labor and Liberal there – they’d both hand the whole state control to federal government if they could.
Look at the hype of the movie Snakes on the Plane on the web, barely registered in the wider community. I’d suggest that this is the same phenomenon.
Comment by Vee — November 10, 2006 @ 10:35 am
We had this discussion last weekend, brother-in-law has been asking who had voted for JH, to date no one has owned up. I put it to him that because he knocks around arty/academic/greenie circles the chances of a Lib voter were remote but he swears that he asked everybody.
I cant speak of Vic but if its the same as NSW theres not much to choose from.
You need to talk to workers, they vote liberal.
Comment by rog — November 10, 2006 @ 12:19 pm
So your looking for Liberal Vic’s,just how many have gone to WA because of cheap housing & jobs? I agree with Vee,there is very little differance between the Liberal and Labor parties.People are changing their minds all the time, it seems their not sure where their vote will go.
Comment by Dr Who — November 10, 2006 @ 2:27 pm
“Most liberals are too busy, working 15 hours a day, to respond. There are only a few, clapped out old war horses, like me, with the time, & inclination, to bleat, on these forums.”
Funny, How you have absolutely no proof of this. I have seen many liberals party bleaters do this. I think both parties are largely made up clowns. But throwing around unsubstantiated comments around is the hallmark of a moron.
I know many labor party workers who very hard as well as liberal. Stop being an idiot. I know it’s difficult but try.
Comment by Bobalot — November 12, 2006 @ 10:56 am
You’re right about voluntary voting. It would hurt the Libs more than the ALP. Vee rightly claims social liberals are more outspoken than classical liberals: I’d go further, they are more committed. (You only need to see how parlously low the Libs vote has gone in recent state elections, esp Qld and Tas, to see how transitory the Liberal base is.) Howard haters may be in the minority, but they are passionate: Howard lovers are in the minority too. Rather Howard wins because he sways the apoliticals come election time: compulsory voting reinforces the status quo, and that’s long been non-Labor federally. Minchin oddly does not grasp this fact.
Comment by Graham — November 12, 2006 @ 10:03 pm
There is only one way that to vote and that is one ALP two GREENS,then three,ANY MINOR PARTY,and the very last right at the bottom LIB/NAT
Comment by Karooson — November 13, 2006 @ 6:22 pm