One of the arguments for replacing John Howard with Peter Costello, even at this late stage, was the high standing in the polls of Tony Blair’s heir, Gordon Brown, immediately after he inherited the job. The lights have dimmed on that argument. Recent polling in the UK shows Gordon Brown losing his dominance over the Tories in just one week with an 8 point swing to the Tories.
According to Peter Kellner, president of online pollster YouGov, this stems from one speech of Tory leader David Cameron “presenting the middle classes with attractive, if highly focused, tax cuts”. Cameron’s standing jumped by 19 points.
Just as the honeymoon was not directly comparable to anything likely to happen in Australia, neither is the swing. But it makes you wonder whether some dramatic tax announcements from Howard as he announces the poll couldn’t similarly change the dynamic here. Voters are volatile. It’s still possible (although unlikely) for Howard to do well.