(Cross post from What the people want). Tomorrow’s Galaxy poll (with the teaser released today on the CM website) confirms our polling. It shows a six percent swing against the government. My polling suggests 7% or thereabouts. Pretty damn close, particularly as we don’t really set-out to measure quants.
So, emboldened by this result I’m going to make a few more quant predictions. On my sample it looks as though the Gold Coast and Central Queensland will swing most against the government. Brisbane is looking at the average swing, Far North Queensland and the Sunshine Coast a bit less than average and areas west of Brisbane a little more.
I am not going to put figures to this because the sample sizes are just too small. But it will be interesting on election night, if these figures hold true in our polling, to see whether they translate into results.
March 05, 2009 | Graham
Galaxy confirms our polling
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It’s very disappointing that there’s no regional breakdown of the Galaxy sample.
There seems to be some talk around the place that the LNP hasn’t got much traction in Brisbane, and that Labor might be doing ok on the Sunshine Coast. You can reasonably infer that the Labor seats in and around Cairns are in some danger because of the amount of time both leaders are spending there.
It would also be good to know whether some of the swing to the LNP is being “wasted” through their vote improving in seats they hold by smaller margins than the very safe ones.
The other thing to note is that there doesn’t appear to be much movement between the two polls, and I’m not sure we can say that there’s strong momentum behind either the ALP or the LNP.
Whether this pattern of voting intention holds, or whether events, or voter reassessments cause a swing to take off in either direction – that’s the question, and I have the feeling it’s too early to answer it.
More of my take here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2009/03/05/day-eleven-wrap-pirates-and-polls/
[and in comments]
I’m also not sure that voters are engaging much. And I don’t think either side is running a particularly outstanding campaign. So I’m quite cautious at this stage about picking a trend – in particular, I’d like more data disaggregated according to region to be more confident about doing so.
Comment by Mark Bahnisch — March 5, 2009 @ 11:03 pm