Kevin Rudd is my local member and as a local member I reckon he’s great, no matter how I vote. He’s also very effective as a foreign affairs spokesman. But if Labor wants to get ahead, making him leader would be the least optimal choice. (I struggled with the phrase “least optimal”, but I couldn’t use “worst”. When you’re talking depth of talent the ALP can sink pretty low, and Kevin’s much closer to “best” than “worst”). In fact, if the ALP wants to get ahead they should be sacking him as foreign affairs spokesman.
The reason for both these opinions is the same. If the ALP wants to win the next election it has to stop fighting the war. Every time Labor spokesmen talk about terrorism, security, Iraq, Afghanistan, or indeed anywhere north of (and including) Melville Island they lose votes. These are Howard’s issues and it is Howard’s agenda. Not that the majority of Australians wants to vote on these issues, but when they think about them they think of Howard as being reliable and Labor as being a divided rabble that couldn’t even deliver sandwiches in the Parliamentary canteen, let alone policies.
Rudd’s problem is that his strength, and it is a considerable personal one, is Howard’s agenda, which makes it a political weakness. Each time he diligently elevates a foreign affairs issue to front page or prime time he loses votes for Labor. Rudd of course is measuring performance in terms of column inches and air time – that’s the proxy politicians use between elections – but these are not good indicators of how well you are really doing.
If Labor wants to win the next election I think it should leave Simon Crean where he is and put Rudd into Health or Education. If it runs on these issues it can win the next election.
There is no doubt that Howard will be campaigning on national security. If you want a preview of his key campaign ad, click here. What we are seeing in Australian politics today is a 50 year cycle. Menzies won election after election on the basis of the divisions that the Cold War caused in Labor. Howard looks set to do the same. The left cares more about its views than it does about the views of the people it wants to represent. As long as Howard and Rudd can keep debate focused on foreign affairs, the left will lose Labor the election. Crean and Labor need to make Howard fight on issues where the views of the left and most Australians coincide, and that’s health and education.
John Howard would probably share my views on this. He knows that the biggest risk to him in the next election is that people will expect him to win and so might just vote ALP out of sympathy. If Labor could get its act together just a little more, not so many people would laugh at Howard whenever he tells his troops (slang word, but on message when it comes to security) Labor could win the next election. And that would be a plus for Howard. Anyone for snooker?