Tax cuts and spending increases – the Treasurer would seem to have covered it all. That’s certainly the impression from today’s papers, but that’s partly a function of the people who write newspapers – they’re employees, and they’re more likely to be older than average and/or have families. It’s these three groups at whom the […]

As the polls predicted, the National Party won the Gaven by-election with just over an 8 percent swing. Listening to them you’d think it was actually the general election. True, a swing like that would most likely deliver them government, but by-elections tend to swing by larger margins than general elections. And they should be […]

I’ve been silent on the blogging front for a while, but it only seems right that I put in my prediction for tonight’s Gaven by-election before any results come in. The National Party should win by a narrow margin, but with a fairly modest swing which will indicate that the next election is still winnable […]

There is a standard script for party leaders who are expected to lose. Embrace that expectation, predict a wipe-out and say you’re doing your best to hang on, but you are afraid things will be worse than any of the polls suggest. That stiffens the nerves of supporters and brings back some who were thinking […]

The South Australian election has been more about losers than winners, and those will be the Liberals and the Democrats. One of them is likely to go into terminal decline, while the other will be banished from office for quite some time. Mike Rann was always going to do well this election. Electors normally give […]

Question: What do you get when you pay a post-materialist doctor 50% more? The answer, if you’re Peter Beattie would appear to be: Two-thirds the person-hours for the same money. In a move designed to encourage more doctors into the Queensland hospital system Peter Beattie increased the income of some junior doctors by up to […]

The ALP election campaign has misfired badly. It is tending to lower the standing of Premier Rann, leaves Rob Kerin almost unscathed and is guaranteeing a good vote for independents and minor parties in the Legislative Council. At the same time the Liberals have yet to put a proposition that voters will really buy. According […]

In the 1995 state election one of the issues that brought the Goss government undone was their false claim that the Coalition was going to privatise the hospital system. The blatant untruthfulness of the accusation led to the Courier Mail labelling it “grubby”, and it was the final turning point in the campaign. So it […]

University of Sydney researchers Gabrielle Meagher and Shaun Wilson have found that as a society Australia has become more left-wing. Comment seems to assume that this has happened despite Howard, but could it be because of him? My thesis isn’t that this is a reaction to Howard’s positions on issues, but rather that by making […]

Polling in The Sunday Mail today shows the sort of problem that the Queensland coalition has in winning seats from Peter Beattie. It was done in the seat of Gaven where the sitting member, Robert Poole, has been forced to resign because he is spending most of his time in Thailand with his family rather […]